Asalam aleykum, my brothers and sisters.

It’s been a tough journey, but I’m glad most of us have made it into 2012. May Allah (Subhana wa Talla) protect those we lost.

Today I write to you, to mention a huge problem I’ve been ignoring over the years, that’s eating away at the thin fabric we call sanity. Unfortunately I haven’t been able to find the correct term to describe people of with this behaviour.

All they do is whisper some negative words into your ear, and poison your thoughts. Next thing you know, you’ve gone from having something great, to having nothing.

Now, I can’t be mad at them, because as in life, they are serving a purpose. Nothing occurs in life just for the sake. Everything has a purpose. I’m mad at myself for listening to their poison words, and even worse, not having the inner strength to fight off the poison.

So in this new year, please practice more inner strength & resolve than I have ever been able to. Keep fighting the good fight!

Militant out.

Here’s an excerpt:

A San Francisco cable car holds 60 people. This blog was viewed about 1,200 times in 2011. If it were a cable car, it would take about 20 trips to carry that many people.

Click here to see the complete report.

Asalam aleykum, my brothers and sisters.

I’ve been having a hard time collecting my thoughts into a post. Because how these Kenyan politicians are treating the Internally Displaced People (IDPs), and the atrocities during Post Election Violence (PEV) is so appauling!

I have seen some of the pictures and video of things that happened during that dark time in Kenya’s past. And I still can’t believe that these fucking pigs could spread so much hatred amongst their own countrymen and women, to drive people to killing, maiming, rapping and displacing their own neighbors! Their own fucking neighbors!

My anger is so great, that I wish those found guilty behind the violence, are given the death penalty.

If you’ve read my posts in the past, you know I do not support the death penalty, but how else will you uproot an evil this great?

If you ask me, the Dajjal (antichrist in Arabic) is a politician, and h/she’s come to ask you for your vote in next year’s election. What will you do? Be a fool and vote these pigs back in? Or will you take the first step towards repairing the many faults of this great country, before we end up like Somalia…

Militant out.

Asalam aleykum, my brothers and sisters.

I finally got a hold of this album, and if you’ve been following my posts over the years, I consider Lupe Fiasco to be one of the most brilliant rappers out there. I have every mixtape and now album too, that he’s every released, and I can’t dare tell you, he gave any less in one.

He’s the most consistent rapper I know. I’m also a huge fan of Akrobatic & Blu (from Blu & Exile), but Blu released this weird album and left me wondering, “What was I thinking”. But for real, have a listen, I guarantee, you will not be disappointed.

PS. My favorite track is Words I Never Said ft. Skylar Grey. He takes the words right out of my mouth. For a download, check out Lupe Fiasco’s Lasers

Militant out.

I was listening to Flobots when I came across this song, and the words just spoke to me. Have a read/listen:

Media mavens mount surgical strikes from trapper keeper collages and online magazine racks
Cover girl cutouts throw up pop-up ads
Infecting victims with silicone shrapnel
Worldwide passenger pigeons deploy paratroopers
Now it’s raining pornography
Lovers take shelter
Post-production debutantes pursue you in Nascar chariots

We are the insurgents

What more can I say?

Militant out.

I'm Rich Bitch!!!

Asalam aleykum, my brothers and sisters.

I was listening to KRS-One’s Adventures In Emceein album, when I came across a track called Money, featuring Mc Lyte. No here’s a verse by Mc Lyte:

Money is funny – how a piece of paper can make or break your very existence
Quick as it come, quick as it go – you better know about the ebb and the flow
You get money in droves, trick it on cars and blow
Throw dollars at black queens ’cause, for the dough they’ll strip their clothes
And for the right amount of money
A king will pimp his queen into being a ho on a stroll
Life will always be hard when you choose to make money your god

That verse got me thinking, are we the 21st century slaves? Think about it, we’re born, we go to school, get a good education, graduate, get a good job, buy a home & retire.

They define slavery to be:
a system under which people are treated as property and are forced to work.[1] Slaves can be held against their will from the time of their capture, purchase or birth, and deprived of the right to leave, to refuse to work, or to demand compensation.

It just feels like we’re being shoved into a cultural mindset, whereby someone gives you the impression that there’s nothing else in life for you.

What happened to taking a walk in the park & smelling the roses? Or going on a hike? Travelling the world?

Instead I have dreams about the Aston Martin DB9, & feel totally useless till the day I own a Ferrari 599. Isn’t it a bit weird that if this is the culture that the ‘powers that be want for us’, then why on earth do we see so many suicides in Japan, one of the most highly trained societies in the world, yet this individual feels like there is totally no other way out, but death.

It’s really sad. I’m honestly disturbed by how many suicides occur in Nairobi today, as compared to earlier years. Thought they’ve been for the flimsiest reasons in most cases, like the girl who killed herself because she didn’t attend the Shaggy concert, or the other guy who killed himself because of a English Premier League game….

I’m not underestimating or talking down their problems. Maybe they had good reason. All I’m saying is, in a world where we’re forced to want such silly things, we end up missing on the important things in life…

Basically I see money as a root of many things. But are we really a slave to it, or are we a slave to being a slave…? What about our nature is so vile & so evil, that we can’t just live with each other as equals? We have to find a way to make one person be better than the other. Whether it’s based on talent, colour, religion, upbringing, hieght, breast size, penis size, you know I could go on and on, but I think you get the point.

All I could say can be summarised in the following:

Young Jeezy – The Inspiration

If it don’t make dollars, it don’t make cents/sense
Words to live by, took it out of context
They say your pass is your present and your present is your cash
So I look forward to the future
Get a lil’ paper your baby momma won’t have
Part of the college so I need a forecast
Where’s the weatherman at when you need him?
A hungry nigga eat anything you feed him
A rich nigga will buy anything you sell him
And a broke nigga believe anything you fuckin tell him

So money isn’t the root of all evil, human beings are.

Militant out.

Kanji Humility

US Democracy

Asalam aleykum, my brothers and sisters.

Writer’s block isn’t an easy thing to overcome, but when you have events such as what is going on, it does get the juice back into the pen.

I guess by now you have heard of the revolutionary wave sweeping across the world, yes, finally people are waking up, no more oppression, no more being treated as subjects, no more impunity, no more dictators!

But then again, we can’t rest now. Because these little revolutionary wins are nothing compared to, what I will term as the greatest threat to a democratic world, and that is the United States of America.

Wikipedia describes democracy as: A political form of government in which governing power is derived from the people, by consensus (consensus democracy), by direct referendum (direct democracy), or by means of elected representatives of the people (representative democracy).

Now tell me, if one country’s already vetting candidates for a process that’s supposed to be democratic, then the word looses its meaning. Have a read.

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 001417

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR WATERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION IN EGYPT

REF: A. CAIRO 671
¶B. CAIRO 974
¶C. 2006 CAIRO 2010

CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR FRANCIS J. RICCIARDONE,
FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

¶1. (C) SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION: PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION IS
THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM OF EGYPTIAN POLITICS. DESPITE
INCESSANT WHISPERED DISCUSSIONS, NO ONE IN EGYPT HAS ANY
CERTAINTY ABOUT WHO WILL SUCCEED MUBARAK, OR HOW THE
SUCCESSION WILL HAPPEN. MUBARAK HIMSELF SEEMS TO BE TRUSTING
TO GOD AND THE INERTIA OF THE MILITARY AND CIVILIAN SECURITY
SERVICES TO ENSURE AN ORDERLY TRANSITION. IN THE CURRENT
POLITICAL FRAMEWORK, THE MOST LIKELY CONTENDERS ARE
PRESIDENTIAL SON GAMAL MUBARAK (WHOSE PROFILE IS
EVER-INCREASING AT THE RULING NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY),
EGIS CHIEF OMAR SOLIMAN, DARK HORSE ARAB LEAGUE SECRETARY
GENERAL AMRE MOUSSA, OR AN AS-YET UNKNOWN MILITARY OFFICER.
WHOEVER ENDS UP AS EGYPT’S NEXT PRESIDENT LIKELY WILL BE
POLITICALLY WEAKER THAN MUBARAK. ONCE MUBARAK’S SUCCESSOR
HAS ASSUMED THE POST, HIS FIRST PRIORITY WILL BE TO BUILD
POPULAR SUPPORT. WE THUS EXPECT THAT THE NEW PRESIDENT WILL
LIKELY ADOPT AN ANTI-AMERICAN TONE IN HIS INITIAL PUBLIC
RHETORIC, IN AN EFFORT TO PROVE HIS NATIONALIST BONA FIDES TO
THE EGYPTIAN STREET, AND MAY POSSIBLY EXTEND AN OLIVE BRANCH
TO THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, AS DID PREVIOUS EGYPTIAN
PRESIDENTS AT THE BEGINNING OF THEIR TERMS. END SUMMARY.

——————————
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR SUCCESSION
——————————

¶2. (C) PRESIDENT MUBARAK IS FOND OF OBSERVING THAT NO ONE
SHOULD HAVE ANY QUALMS REGARDING HIS SUCCESSION, SINCE
EGYPT’S CONSTITUTION PROVIDES A DETAILED GUIDE FOR HOW A
SUCCESSION SHOULD PROCEED. AMONG THE RECENT CONSTITUTIONAL
AMENDMENTS WAS A NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE ARTICLE DETERMINING
WHICH OFFICIAL ASSUMES POWER IN THE EVENT OF THE TEMPORARY
INCAPACITATION OF THE PRESIDENT. ARTICLE 82, WHICH
PREVIOUSLY DELINEATED THAT THE VICE-PRESIDENT SHOULD ASSUME
PRESIDENTIAL POWERS “IF ON ACCOUNT OF ANY TEMPORARY OBSTACLE
THE PRESIDENT IS UNABLE TO CARRY OUT HIS DUTIES,” HAS BEEN
AMENDED SO THAT, IF THERE IS NO VICE-PRESIDENT, THE PRIME
MINISTER IS ASSIGNED PRESIDENTIAL POWERS. ARTICLE 84 READS,
“IN CASE OF THE VACANCY OF THE PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE OR THE
PERMANENT DISABILITY OF THE PRESIDENT,” THE PRESIDENT OF THE
PEOPLE’S ASSEMBLY (PA) OR THE PRESIDENT OF THE SUPREME
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT SHOULD TEMPORARILY ASSUME THE
PRESIDENCY. NEITHER WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY BE ALLOWED TO
NOMINATE HIMSELF FOR THE PRESIDENCY; THERE IS NO SUCH
STIPULATION AGAINST THE PM RUNNING FOR THE OFFICE. ARTICLE
84 GOES ON TO STIPULATE THAT, “THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC
SHALL BE CHOSEN WITHIN A MAXIMUM PERIOD OF 60 DAYS FROM THE
DAY OF THE VACANCY OF THE PRESIDENCY.”

¶3. (C) CONSTITUTIONAL ARTICLE 76, WHICH PREVIOUSLY WIRED THE
EGYPTIAN ELECTORAL FRAMEWORK TO GUARANTEE THE PRESIDENCY TO
THE RULING NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (NDP), WAS ALSO AMONG
THE ARTICLES AMENDED IN APRIL (REF A). THE CHANGE WILL
OSTENSIBLY FACILITATE MORE COMPETITIVE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS, WHILE STILL PROTECTING AGAINST ANY SERIOUS
CHALLENGE TO THE NDP CANDIDATE. UNDER THE REVISIONS TO
ARTICLE 76, FOR AN INTERIM 10-YEAR PERIOD (I.E. UNTIL 2017),
LEGAL POLITICAL PARTIES WHICH HOLD AN ELECTED SEAT IN THE
PEOPLE’S ASSEMBLY OR SHURA COUNCIL CAN NOMINATE A
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE (CURRENTLY, ONLY FOUR PARTIES MEET
THIS REQUIREMENT – THE NDP, AL GHAD, AL WAFD, AND TAGGAMU).
FOLLOWING THE INTERIM PERIOD, IN ORDER TO RUN A PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE:

– A PARTY HAS TO HAVE BEEN IN EXISTENCE FOR AT LEAST 5 YEARS
PRIOR TO THE ELECTION;

– ITS CANDIDATE MUST HAVE BEEN A MEMBER OF THE HIGHEST
LEADERSHIP BODY OF THE PARTY FOR AT LEAST 1 YEAR; AND,

– THE PARTY WOULD HAVE TO HOLD AT LEAST 3% OF THE SEATS IN
BOTH PARLIAMENTARY HOUSES (I.E., 14 SEATS IN THE PEOPLE’S
ASSEMBLY, AND 6 SEATS IN THE SHURA COUNCIL), OR 6% OF THE
SEATS
IN EITHER THE PA OR SHURA COUNCIL).

¶4. (C) GENUINELY INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES FACE AN ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE BAR TO ENTER THE RACE. TO COMPETE IN THE NEXT
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, ARTICLE 76 STATES THAT AN
“INDEPENDENT” MUST OBTAIN ENDORSEMENTS FROM 250 ELECTED
MEMBERS OF EGYPT’S NATIONAL AND LOCAL REPRESENTATIVE BODIES,
OF WHICH THERE MUST BE A MINIMUM OF 65 ENDORSEMENTS FROM
MEMBERS OF THE PEOPLES ASSEMBLY, 25 FROM THE SHURA COUNCIL,
AND 10 FROM LOCAL COUNCILS IN AT LEAST 14 GOVERNORATES. THIS
WOULD BE A NEAR UNATTAINABLE FEAT FOR A NON-NDP CANDIDATE TO
ACHIEVE, GIVEN THE RULING PARTY’S DOMINATION OF ALL EGYPTIAN
ELECTED BODIES. IN EFFECT, THE PROVISIONS OF ARTICLE 76
ACCOMPLISH TWO OBJECTIVES REGARDING INDEPENDENTS: THE RULING
PARTY CAN BLOCK THE EMERGENCE OF ANY GENUINELY “INDEPENDENT”
CANDIDATE, WHILE IT COULD THEORETICALLY REACH BEYOND THE
NDP’S TOP LEADERSHIP TO SELECT AN “INDEPENDENT” WHOM THE
RULING ELITE JUDGES WILL BEST PROTECT THEIR INTERESTS,
PROVIDED THE NDP RETAINS PARTY DISCIPLINE.

——————–
POTENTIAL CANDIDATES
——————–

¶5. (C) PRESIDENT MUBARAK, WHO BEGAN HIS FIFTH 6-YEAR TERM IN
SEPTEMBER 2005, RECENTLY TURNED 79. THE NEXT PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION IS DUE TO BE HELD IN 2011. BY THE TIME MUBARAK
SERVES HIS FULL TERM, THERE MAY BE OTHER CANDIDATES IN THE
WINGS, OR MUBARAK HIMSELF COULD CHOOSE TO RUN AGAIN FOR THE
PRESIDENCY. HE IS ON RECORD AS SAYING, IN A NOVEMBER 2006
SPEECH, THAT HE PLANNED TO REMAIN PRESIDENT “AS LONG AS I
HAVE A HEART THAT BEATS, AND BREATH IN MY BODY.” BUT IF THE
SUCCESSION HAPPENED TOMORROW, EGYPTIAN PARLOR SPECULATION
FOCUSES ON THE FOLLOWING AS POSSIBLE SUCCESSORS.

GAMAL MUBARAK
————-

¶6. (C) CAIRENE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM HOLDS THAT GAMAL WANTS THE
JOB, DESPITE HIS REPEATED DENIALS TO THE CONTRARY (REF B).
THE MOST RECENT SUCH ABJURATION WAS ON MAY 2, DURING AN
INTERVIEW WITH THE ORBIT SATELLITE TV CHANNEL, WHEN GAMAL
STATED THAT, “I DO NOT HAVE THE INTENTION AND AMBITION TO RUN
FOR PRESIDENT … WHATEVER THE PARTY SAYS DOES NOT MATTER. I
AM NOT LOOKING FOR ANY EXECUTIVE POST.” SUCH COY DEMURRALS
RING HOLLOW IN THE FACE OF HIS INCREASINGLY ROBUST ROLE
WITHIN THE NDP (FAR EXCEEDING THAT OF HIS COUNTERPARTS IN THE
PARTY HIERARCHY), HIS APPARENTLY CENTRAL ROLE IN CREATING NEW
LEGISLATION, AND HIS RECENT TOURS TO VARIOUS GOVERNORATES
FEATURING MINISTERIAL ENTOURAGES. IT IS HARD TO ARGUE THAT
GAMAL IS NOT BEING GROOMED FOR THE PRESIDENCY.

¶7. (C) MANY IN THE EGYPTIAN ELITE SEE HIS SUCCESSION AS
POSITIVE, AS HIS LIKELY CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT STATUS
QUO WOULD SERVE THEIR BUSINESS AND POLITICAL INTERESTS.
GIVEN THE LEGAL REQUIREMENTS FOR CANDIDACY, AND WEAK
OPPOSITION LEADERSHIP, THERE ARE CURRENTLY FEW OTHER EGYPTIAN
PERSONALITIES WITH THE NATIONAL STATURE AND POLITICAL CAPITAL
TO SERIOUSLY CONTEND FOR THE PRESIDENCY. LIKEWISE, DUE TO
THE PARANOIA OF THE EGYPTIAN DICTATORSHIP, NO OTHER NAME CAN
SAFELY OR RESPECTFULLY BE BRUITED AS A CONTENDER. WHILE THE
PRESIDENT’S SON IS VULNERABLE TO OPEN CRITICISM FOR HIS
PRESUMED AMBITION, HE IS THE ONLY PERSON IN EGYPT WHOSE TOTAL
LOYALTY TO MUBARAK IS ALSO TAKEN FOR GRANTED, SO HIS IS THE
ONLY NAME THAT CAN POSSIBLY BE BANDIED ABOUT.

¶8. (C) A KEY STUMBLING BLOCK FOR A GAMAL CANDIDACY COULD BE
THE MILITARY. EACH OF EGYPT’S FOUR PRESIDENTS SINCE 1952
AROSE FROM THE OFFICER CORPS, AND THE MILITARY HAS
HISTORICALLY BEEN THE ULTIMATE GUARANTOR OF THE PRESIDENT’S
RULE. GAMAL DID NOT SERVE AS A MILITARY OFFICER, AND WE
BELIEVE HE DID NOT COMPLETE HIS COMPULSORY SERVICE. MANY
OBSERVERS OPINE THAT TIMING IS THE CRUCIAL FACTOR FOR A
POTENTIAL GAMAL PRESIDENCY – HIS POWER BASE IS HIS FATHER,
AND SO WHILE HE COULD CONCEIVABLY BE INSTALLED PRIOR TO
MUBARAK’S DEATH, THE TASK WOULD BECOME FAR MORE DIFFICULT,
ALTHOUGH NOT INSURMOUNTABLE, ONCE THE PHARAOH HAS DEPARTED
THE SCENE, AND PERSONAL LOYALTIES TO HIM ARE IN THE PAST.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS WIDESPREAD POPULAR ANIMUS AGAINST A GAMAL
CANDIDACY, WITH MANY EGYPTIANS OPINING PROUDLY THAT, “WE ARE
NOT SYRIA OR SAUDI!”, THE NDP MACHINERY COULD LIKELY STAGE AN
ELECTORAL VICTORY, BASED ON POOR VOTER TURNOUT, SLOPPY VOTER
LISTS, AND STATE CONTROL OF THE ELECTION APPARATUS.

OMAR SOLIMAN
————-

¶9. (C) EGYPTIAN INTELLIGENCE CHIEF AND MUBARAK CONSIGLIERE,
IN PAST YEARS SOLIMAN WAS OFTEN CITED AS LIKELY TO BE NAMED
TO THE LONG-VACANT VICE-PRESIDENTIAL POST. IN THE PAST TWO
YEARS, SOLIMAN HAS STEPPED OUT OF THE SHADOWS, AND ALLOWED
HIMSELF TO BE PHOTOGRAPHED, AND HIS MEETINGS WITH FOREIGN
LEADERS REPORTED. MANY OF OUR CONTACTS BELIEVE THAT SOLIMAN,
BECAUSE OF HIS MILITARY BACKGROUND, WOULD AT THE LEAST HAVE
TO FIGURE IN ANY SUCCESSION SCENARIO FOR GAMAL, POSSIBLY AS A
TRANSITIONAL FIGURE. SOLIMAN HIMSELF ADAMANTLY DENIES ANY
PERSONAL AMBITIONS, BUT HIS INTEREST AND DEDICATION TO
NATIONAL SERVICE IS OBVIOUS. HIS LOYALTY TO MUBARAK SEEMS
ROCK-SOLID. AT AGE 71, HE COULD BE ATTRACTIVE TO THE RULING
APPARATUS AND THE PUBLIC AT LARGE AS A RELIABLE FIGURE
UNLIKELY TO HARBOR AMBITIONS FOR ANOTHER MULTI-DECADE
PRESIDENCY. A KEY UNANSWERED QUESTION IS HOW HE WOULD
RESPOND TO A GAMAL PRESIDENCY ONCE MUBARAK IS DEAD. AN
ALLEGED PERSONAL FRIEND OF SOLIMAN TELLS US THAT SOLIMAN
“DETESTS” THE IDEA OF GAMAL AS PRESIDENT, AND THAT HE ALSO
WAS “DEEPLY PERSONALLY HURT” BY MUBARAK, WHO PROMISED TO NAME
HIM VICE-PRESIDENT SEVERAL YEARS AGO, BUT THEN RENEGED.

AMRE MOUSSA
———–

¶10. (C) THE CHARISMATIC ARAB LEAGUE SECRETARY GENERAL
PRUDENTLY HAS NEVER INDICATED INTENTION OR AMBITION TO ENTER
INTO EGYPTS DOMESTIC POLITICAL FRAY, AND HAS NO EGYPTIAN
INSTITUTIONAL POLITICAL PLATFORM FROM WHICH TO SPRING.
HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH-PROFILE ELDER STATESMAN OF ARAB CAUSES,
HE ENJOYS CONSIDERABLE STREET CREDIBILITY, POPULARITY, AND
PERCEIVED GRAVITAS. IT IS FAR-FETCHED BUT CONCEIVABLE THAT,
IN A LEADERSHIP CRISIS FOLLOWING MUBARAK’S DEATH, MOUSSA
COULD EMERGE AS A PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDER, PROVIDED THAT HE IS
AN NDP MEMBER, OR IF THE NDP WERE TO PROMOTE HIM UNDER THE
CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS ALLOWED FOR INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES.

MILITARY OFFICER
—————-

¶11. (C) CURRENTLY, THERE IS NO OBVIOUS CONTENDER FROM AMONG
THE OFFICER CORPS, EGYPT’S TRADITIONAL PRESIDENTIAL
RECRUITMENT GROUNDS. MINISTER OF DEFENSE TANTAWI, A
CONTEMPORARY OF MUBARAK’S, APPEARS TO HARBOR NO POLITICAL
AMBITIONS. LIKE SOLIMAN, HE COULD PLAY A ROLE IN CLEARING
THE WAY FOR GAMAL, IF HE CALCULATES THAT IS IN THE BEST
INTERESTS OF THE COUNTRY; CONVERSELY, HE COULD ALSO BE A KEY
PLAYER IN PREVENTING GAMALS ASCENDANCE. WE HAVE HEARD SOME
LIMITED REPORTS OF TANTAWIS INCREASING FRUSTRATION AND
DISENCHANTMENT WITH GAMAL (REF B). IN THE EVENT OF A NATIONAL
LEADERSHIP CRISIS, IT IS NEAR INCONCEIVABLE THAT GIVEN
MUBARAK’S PERSONAL MANIPULATION OF THE OFFICE CORPS, THAT
ANOTHER MILITARY OFFICER COULD EMERGE FROM OBSCURITY TO
ASSERT HIMSELF AS A CANDIDATE. BUT TANTAWI AND HIS SENIOR
COTERIE ARE NOT NECESSARILY POPULAR AT MID AND LOWER RANKS,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A MID-20TH CENTURY STYLE COUP OF
COLONELS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED.

OPPOSITION MEMBER
—————–

¶12. (C) OF THE 10 PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS IN 2005,
SECOND-PLACE AL GHAD PARTY LEADER AYMAN NOUR IS CURRENTLY
SERVING A SEVEN-YEAR JAIL TERM, AND ACCORDING TO EGYPTIAN
LAW, WILL BE BANNED FROM PARTICIPATING IN EGYPTIAN POLITICAL
LIFE FOR SEVERAL YEARS FOLLOWING HIS RELEASE. THE
THIRD-PLACE FINISHER, AL WAFD PARTY CANDIDATE NO’MAN GOMAA,
LOST HIS PARTY POSITION FOLLOWING A VIOLENT AND
SCANDAL-RIDDEN LEADERSHIP STRUGGLE. THE OTHER EIGHT
CANDIDATES, MARGINAL FIGURES TO BEGIN WITH, HAVE FADED BACK
INTO TOTAL OBSCURITY. CURRENT AL WAFD LEADER MAHMOUD ABAZA
IS A TALENTED POLITICIAN, BUT AT THIS POINT, DOES NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE NATIONAL APPEAL OR ORGANIZATIONAL CAPACITY TO MOUNT A
SERIOUS ATTEMPT AT THE PRESIDENCY.

DARK HORSE AND ALSO RANS
————————

¶13. (C) POPULAR REFORMIST MINISTER OF TRADE RACHID IS A
POTENTIAL CANDIDATE, THOUGH A DISTINCT DARK HORSE.
NONETHELESS, HE COMES FROM AN OLD AND RESPECTED FAMILY AND IS
SEEN BY MANY AS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR EGYPT’S IMPRESSIVE
ECONOMIC GROWTH OF THE PAST THREE YEARS. INTERESTINGLY, THE
HEAD OF CAIRO’S LARGE AND INFLUENTIAL AMCHAM, WHO KNOWS
RACHID WELL, TOLD US THAT, AFTER NEGOTIATING THE
CONTROVERSIAL QIZ PROGRAM, THE MINISTER “REALLY NEEDS
MOVEMENT ON THE FTA FOR POLITICAL COVER,” RAISING THE
QUESTION: POLITICAL COVER FOR WHAT? WHILE IT IS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY RACHID WOULD TAKE ON GAMAL HEAD-TO-HEAD, WE CANNOT
DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY THAT HE WILLPLAY A ROLE IN A
CARETAKER GOVERNMENT, AND MAY EENTUALLY EMERGE AS A LEADER.

¶14. (C) SAFWAT ELSHERIF (NDP SECRETARY GENERAL AND SHURA
COUNCIL PEAKER), MUFEED SHEHAB (NDP ASSISTANT SYG, AND
MINISTER OF STATE FOR LEGAL AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS, AND
ZAKARIA AZMY (NDP ASSISTANT SYG AND MUBARA’S DE FACTO CHIEF
OF STAFF) ALL, AS SENIOR LEADES OF THE NDP, MEET THE
CONSTITUTIONAL CRITERIA T RUN FOR OFFICE. NONE OF THESE
GRIZZLED NDP VETERANS HAVE PUBLICLY EXPRESSED PRESIDENTIAL
ASPIRATONS, NOR DO THEY APPEAR TO POSSESS ANY CAPABILITIE
TO GOVERN, NOR PERSONAL CONSTITUENCIES. HOWEVE, WHILE
UNLIKELY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT, ONCE MUBAAK PERE IS OUT OF
THE PICTURE, ONE OF THEM COULD EMERGE IN AN ANTI-GAMAL PARTY
PUTSCH. FURTHERMORE. MOST ANALYSTS HERE BELIEVE THAT ANY
GOVERNOR PUSHING FOR THE PRESIDENCY IS A FAR-FETCHED
POSSIBILITY – THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF GOVERNORS ARE
FORMER SENIOR MILITARY AND POLICE OFFICERS CHOSEN FOR THEIR
LOYALTY, FAR FROM THE CRITICAL POLITICAL FRAY IN CAIRO, AND
WITH NO POWER BASES.

MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD
——————

¶15. (C) WHILE THE SPECTER OF AN MB PRESIDENCY HAUNTS SECULAR
EGYPTIANS, IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY IN THE IMMEDIATE
POST-MUBARAK PERIOD. UNDER THE CURRENT LEGAL FRAMEWORK, THE
MB HAS NO ABILITY TO PUT FORWARD A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IN
THE EVENT OF AN ELECTION. THE ORGANIZATION DOES NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE THE ORGANIZED MILITARY WING NECESSARY SHOULD IT WISH
TO ATTEMPT TO SEIZE THE PRESIDENCY BY FORCE. CONSTANT
OVERSIGHT OF THE ARMED FORCES AIMED AT ROOTING OUT POTENTIAL
ISLAMIST SYMPATHIZERS MEANS THAT FEW LIKELY REMAIN, ALTHOUGH
THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SOME CLOSE-MOUTHED MB-LEANING
OFFICERS ARE PRESENT. OVERALL, IN THE VIEW OF MOST EGYPTIAN
ANALYSTS, THE GROUP’S APPROACH SEEMS TO BE ONE OF PATIENCE
AND GRASS ROOTS BUILDING OF SUPPORT, WAITING FOR THE DAY WHEN
IT MIGHT COME TO POWER THROUGH POPULAR ELECTION, OR BY
POPULAR DEMAND AFTER A GAMAL PRESIDENCY HAS FOUNDERED.

————————
POST-SUCCESSION DYNAMICS
————————

¶16. (C) WHOEVER EGYPT’S NEXT PRESIDENT IS, HE WILL INEVITABLY
BE POLITICALLY WEAKER THAN MUBARAK, AND ONCE HE HAS ASSUMED
THE POST, AMONG HIS FIRST PRIORITIES WILL BE TO CEMENT HIS
POSITION AND BUILD POPULAR SUPPORT. WE CAN THUS ANTICIPATE
THAT THE NEW PRESIDENT MAY SOUND AN INITIAL ANTI-AMERICAN
TONE IN HIS PUBLIC RHETORIC, IN AN EFFORT TO PROVE HIS
NATIONALIST BONA FIDES TO THE EGYPTIAN STREET, AND DISTANCE
HIMSELF FROM MUBARAK’S POLICIES. IF HISTORY IS ANY GUIDE, WE
CAN ALSO EXPECT THE NEW PRESIDENT TO EXTEND AN OLIVE BRANCH
TO THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, AS DID GAMAL ABDEL NASSER, ANWAR
EL SADAT, AND MUBARAK EARLY IN ALL OF THEIR TERMS, IN AN
EFFORT TO CO-OPT POTENTIAL OPPOSITION, AND BOOST POPULARITY.
RICCIARDONE

Click here for more on the Egyptian Leaks

Militant out.

Post-Election Violence

Asalam aleykum, my brothers and sisters.

Today in Kenya, some have awaken from sweaty nightmares, others have woken in a day full of praise, with the following words dripping from their mouths, “Finally, justice!”.

Luis Moreno-Ocampo, is finally releasing the names of the 6 suspects under investigation for Kenya’s Post-Election Violence between 2007 and 2008.

But what my fellow Kenyans don’t understand, is that whatever happens in the next 6 hours, whomever is named, doesn’t really have any realistic effects on the situation.

These people haven’t been tried, convicted, or even arrested. They have just been named as suspects, and do you know what happens to suspects? They are taken in for questioning, as the prosecution builds a case.

So we may even see some of the named, plea bargain their way out of a conviction.

Who know?!?! This could go either way. What hasn’t changed, is whether we as Kenyans, have learnt from our mistakes, of being so ignorant & narrow-minded, as to define ourselves by our tribes.

How foolish were we? The yesterday I was listening to Capital FM’s new breakfast duo, and they asked: “What makes you proud to be Kenyan?”. I couldn’t answer that question. But if i framed it as: “What would make me proud to be a Kenyan”, I would say: For us to be so human, and so wise, as not to see each other as one part in competition with another, but as sums of little parts, that create a wonderful picture.

Militant out.

As expected, I do support Assange’s efforts to bring to the light, the US’s transgressions over the years. They have used ‘impunity’ as a term to describe actions of most African governments, well, as that may be, I would throw the same term back at them, for their foreign policies, especially regarding Kenya in relation to it’s East African partners.

As you are about to read, Kenya was put in a very vicarious position. Snap judgements & random change of policy in Washington, may result in mass loss of life. If these stupid bureaucrats don’t understand that, then they will one day learn a very painful lesson, when it happens to them.

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002497

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/16
TAGS: MARR MCAP MOPS MASS PARM PINR PTER PREL KE UG UP SU
SUBJECT: Kenya responds to Sudan tank demarche

REF: 09 STATE 122115; 09 NAIROBI 2487

CLASSIFIED BY: Rachel Meyers, Deputy Political Counselor, State, POL;
REASON: 1.4(A), (B), (D)

¶1. On December 15, Ambassador Ranneberger discussed the tank
transfer issue with Prime Minister Odinga, who said that the GOK
was committed to assisting the GOSS and that there was “intense
pressure” from the GOSS to deliver the tanks. He hinted that the
GOK might instead transfer the tanks to Uganda (and, he implied,
from there to South Sudan). On December 16, following AF guidance,
Ambassador Ranneberger reiterated to the PM that any further
transfer of the tanks, via Uganda or otherwise, would violate U.S.
law and could trigger sweeping sanctions against Kenya. He also
noted that the likelihood of receiving a waiver for past transfers
of LME to the SPLA since 2007 would be remote if the GOK proceeded
with moving the tanks to Sudan. Ambassador Ranneberger also briefed
Minister of Finance Uhuru Kenyatta on the issue on December 16, and
Kenyatta responded that he understood the U.S. position.

¶2. On December 16, COL McNevin and DAO notetaker met with CGS
Kianga and DMI Kameru at the Ambassador’s direction. The Vice Chief
of General Staff General Karanji also attended. McNevin reiterated
the points made by Ambassador Ranneberger to the PM (see para 2)
and noted that we are open to discussing possible future options
for disposition of the tanks so that the GOK is not stuck with
assets it does not need. Before the meeting, Kameru mentioned that
in the GOK’s view, the tanks belong to the GOSS and that his
government is receiving “increasing pressure” to deliver them. He
added that President Kibaki was personally very angry about this
issue. During the meeting, Kianga commented that the GOK was “very
confused” by our position and did not understand why they needed a
waiver, since the past transfers had been undertaken in
consultation with the United States and they thought we were in
agreement on the way forward towards implementation of the CPA. He
added that this was causing a “major problem” between the GOK and
the GOSS. Kianga asked about the significance of what appeared to
him to be a major policy reversal, and questioned whether the
United States is rethinking the CPA, increasingly shifting its
support to Khartoum, and/or now seeking a unitary state in Sudan.
Kianga asked that the United States explain directly to the
GOSS/SPLA why we are blocking the tank transfer. Following that
discussion, Kianga indicated the GOK would like to participate in
a high-level trilateral meeting (GOK, GOSS, and USG) to reach a
collective understanding of U.S. and regional partner countries’
objectives with respect to implementation of the CPA.

¶3. As McNevin was departing the meeting, Kameru called him back and
asked, on Kianga’s behalf, for a list of all DOD programs and
funding for Kenya, due to Kameru later today (December 16) in
preparation for an upcoming Defense Council meeting scheduled for
December 21. The Defense Council is chaired by President Kibaki,
and it appears likely that Kianga will use the list to underscore
the importance of the U.S.-Kenya mil-mil relationship and to
convince Kibaki not to transfer the tanks. In addition to Kibaki
and Kianga, other Defense Council members are NSIS Director
Gichangi, Minister for Defense Haji, Minister for Internal Security
Saitoti, Commandant of the Administration Police Mbugua, and Police
Commissioner Iteere. (Note: The Defense Council is composed
entirely of advisors who are close to the President and come from
his Kikuyu ethnic group or closely related groups. End note.)

¶4. As directed in ref A, the demarche regarding transfer of
Ukrainian-origin LME by the Government of Kenya (GOK) to the Sudan
People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) was originally delivered by Deputy
Assistant Secretary for Defense Vicki Huddleston and Kenya-US
Liaison Office Chief COL McNevin to Kenya Assistant Minister for
Defense David Musila and Kenya Chief of Defense Forces General
Kianga on 8 December 2009. COL McNevin also discussed the issue
further with the Director of Military Intelligence Philip Kameru on
December 9, 12, and 16. In addition, the Political RA Chief met
with Director of National Security and Intelligence Service (NSIS)
General Gichangi on the issue on December 16.The GOK
representatives assured DASD Huddleston and COL McNevin that no
tanks would be delivered to the SPLA for the foreseeable future.
(Note: There are 32 T-72 tanks remaining in Kenya from the
shipment that arrived in Mombasa aboard the M/V Faina. End note.)

NAIROBI 00002497 002 OF 002

¶5. On December 9, DMI Kameru also noted that all other transfers
have been done with full disclosure to the United States, and the
GOK has shared all information regarding these transfers without
hesitation. He further noted that stopping this shipment will
incur “big costs” and that “Salva Kir will not be happy.” He went
on to state that the GOK may seek waiver support from the
Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) and that the basis for the
waiver would be the implementing instructions of the Comprehensive
Peace Agreement (CPA), which allow other nations to support the
modernization and conversion of the SPLA from a guerilla force to a
small conventional civilian military that would be capable of
future integration with the Sudanese national military. As noted in
ref A talking points, McNevin and Kameru also briefly discussed
that U.S. legislation does contain a waiver provision. On December
12, McNevin held a subsequent meeting with Kameru at the
Ambassasdor’s request and noted that the likelihood of a waiver
being granted by the United States would be remote if the GOK went
ahead with the tank transfer.

¶6. Comment: As of 16 December, the 32 T-72 tanks remain on
flatcars at Kahawa Army Barracks in Nairobi. If indeed the tanks
are not going to be transported in the “foreseeable future,” we
would expect to see them off-loaded soon and the flatcars returned
to Rift Valley Railroad service. The GOK is understandably
confused, as transfer of these tanks, in their view, dove-tailed
with the goals of the United States to implement the CPA by
converting the SPLA from a guerrilla force to a small conventional
force capable of defending Juba (but not take Khartoum), able to
integrate with a national force, and able to counterbalance the
significant military capacity of Khartoum. Despite the GOK
assurances, there are a number of factors that may lead to the
eventual transfer of the tanks, including: the need to maintain
good relations with South Sudan and keep a friendly ally on Kenya’s
unstable northwestern border; the substantial financial losses
Kenya will incur if it does not complete the transfer; the fact
that Kenya has no need to add additional tank assets to its
military; and Kenya’s financial and, to a lesser extent,
cultural/ideological links with South Sudan.

¶7. Over the past two years, KMOD officials have shared full details
of their engagement with the SPLA as we have shared details of our
training program for the SPLA, including combat arms soldier
training, under a May 2007 Presidential Directive. The GOK views
this as a reversal of U.S. policy that has significant
security,financial, and political implications for them. It is
difficult to persuade the Kenyans that transferring this equipment
to the SPLA violates the terms of the CPA and therefore will merit
sanctions if completed when they are well aware that the United
States is continuing military to military security sector reform
assistance to the SPLA.

¶8. We have been pushing the GOK very hard on the civilian side to
bring about reform and good governance, and have sparked mounting
resistance as a result. Despite that pressure and tension, our
military to military relations have been excellent and our
unimpeded access has been of significant benefit to the USG in
terms of counterterrorism and anti-piracy. Given the competing
policy issues on the table, we welcome ideas to defuse this
situation, discuss options for alternative dispositions of the
tanks, and to harmonize the “apparent disconnect” between the CPA
and U.S. legislation mentioned in ref A. We urge Washington to
consider the GOK’s request to convene a high-level dialogue with
the GOK, GOSS, and other relevant stakeholders as soon as possible
to foster a clear understanding of U.S. policy and develop a way
forward towards CPA implementation.
RANNEBERGER

To read more about the cables, visit Wikileaks

Militant out.

Circumcision Ritual

Asalam aleykum, my brothers and sisters.

It’s been awhile since I blogged. Truth is, I haven’t had much worth sharing, that would be mutually beneficial. So rather than turn my blog into my therapist, I decided to save y’all the drama.

Anyway, back to the issue at hand. Circumcision, what was its purpose?

We’ve been told that it was used to mark progression, for a boy, from childhood to manhood.

Well, till yesterday, that was my reality. Then it was brought to my attention, that the cutting of a boy/man’s foreskin, wasn’t actually to mark any progression, but as a hygienic measure, to control infections.

Shocking, huh? Yeah, I was also taken back by that comment.

Different African cultures have different methods of initiation. The cutting of the foreskin, is common amongst Bantus. Which apparently, is explained by their migratory patterns.

The Bantus migrated through some dry/semi-arid areas of Southern Africa. While on the other hand, the Nilotes, specifically the River-Lake Nilotes, migrated along rivers and lakes from Northern Africa.

At first, I was like, that’s a coincidence. Then I considered the Jews. They migrated through deserts in Arabia to Northern Africa. So to an extent, it does make sense. But I’ll do more research.

Militant out.